Universal Language Model Fine-tuning for Text Classification

Inductive transfer learning has greatly impacted computer vision, but existing approaches in NLP still require task-specific modifications and training from scratch. We propose Universal Language Model Fine-tuning (ULMFiT), an effective transfer learning method that can be applied to any task in NLP, and introduce techniques that are key for fine-tuning a language model. Our method significantly outperforms the state-of-the-art on six text classification tasks, reducing the error by 18-24% on the majority of datasets. Furthermore, with only 100 labeled examples, it matches the performance of training from scratch on 100x more data. We open-source our pretrained models and code.Comment: ACL 2018, fixed denominator in Equation 3, line

Analysis of a Multimedia Stream using Stochastic Process Algebra

It is now well recognised that the next generation of distributed systems will be distributed multimedia systems. Central to multimedia systems is quality of service, which defines the non-functional requirements on the system. In this paper we investigate how stochastic process algebra can be used in order to determine the quality of service properties of distributed multimedia systems. We use a simple multimedia stream as our basic example. We describe it in the Stochastic Process Algebra PEPA and then we analyse whether the stream satisfies a set of quality of service parameters: throughput, end-to-end latency, jitter and error rates

Discordant City Employment Cycles

The national economy is often described as having a business cycle over which aggregate output enters and exits distinct expansion and recession phases. Analogously, national employment cycles in and out of its own expansion and contraction phases, which are closely related to the business cycle. This paper estimates city-level employment cycles for 58 large U.S. cities and documents the substantial cross-city variation in the timing, lengths, and frequencies of their employment contractions. It also shows how the spread of city-level contractions associated with U.S. recessions has tended to follow recession-specific geographic patterns. In addition, cities within the same state or region have tended to have similar employment cycles. There is no evidence, however, that similarities in employment cycles are related to similarities in industry mix. This suggests that the U.S. employment and business cycles has a spatial dimension that is independent of broad industry-level fluctuations.

Business cycle phases in U.S. states

The U.S. aggregate business cycle is often characterized as a series of distinct recession and expansion phases. We apply a regime-switching model to state-level coincident indexes to characterize state business cycles in this way. We find that states differ a great deal in the levels of growth that they experience in the two phases: Recession growth rates are related to industry mix, whereas expansion growth rates are related to education and age composition. Further, states differ significantly in the timing of switches between regimes, indicating large differences in the extent to which state business cycle phases are in concord with those of the aggregate economy.Business cycles ; Regional economics

The 2001 recession and the states of the Eighth Federal Reserve District

Recessions ; Federal Reserve District, 8th

A state-level analysis of the Great Moderation

A number of studies have documented a reduction in aggregate macroeconomic volatility beginning in the early 1980s. Using an empirical model of business cycles, we extend this line of research to state-level employment data and find significant heterogeneity in the timing and magnitude of the state-level volatility reductions. In fact, some states experience no statistically-important reductions in volatility. We then exploit this cross sectional heterogeneity to evaluate hypotheses about the origin of the aggregate volatility reduction. We show that states with relatively high concentrations in the durable-goods and extractive industries tended to experience later breaks. We interpret these results as contradictory to hypotheses that the Great Moderation could have been caused by improved inventory management or less-volatile shocks to energy and/or productivity. Instead, we find results that are more consistent with the view that the most significant contributor to the volatility reduction was improved monetary policy.Macroeconomics ; Econometric models ; Monetary policy

Is There a Burden of Proof in Mental Health Cases?

This article examines the concept of the burden of proof in the context of the First-tier Tribunal (Mental Health). Whereas it is well established that in an adversarial system the burden of proof in a case will always rest with the party bringing the action, the position in an inquisitorial system is far less clear. At least 4 positions have been competing for supremacy on this issue for over 30 years

The Cerebellum and SIDS: Disordered Breathing in a Mouse Model of Developmental Cerebellar Purkinje Cell Loss during Recovery from Hypercarbia.

The cerebellum assists coordination of somatomotor, respiratory, and autonomic actions. Purkinje cell alterations or loss appear in sudden infant death and sudden death in epilepsy victims, possibly contributing to the fatal event. We evaluated breathing patterns in 12 wild-type (WT) and Lurcher mutant mice with 100% developmental cerebellar Purkinje cell loss under baseline (room air), and recovery from hypercapnia, a concern in sudden death events. Six mutant and six WT mice were exposed to 4-min blocks of increasing CO2 (2, 4, 6, and 8%), separated by 4-min recovery intervals in room air. Breath-by-breath patterns, including depth of breathing and end-expiratory pause (EEP) durations during recovery, were recorded. No baseline genotypic differences emerged. However, during recovery, EEP durations significantly lengthened in mutants, compared to WT mice, following the relatively low levels of CO2 exposure. Additionally, mutant mice exhibited signs of post-sigh disordered breathing during recovery following each exposure. Developmental cerebellar Purkinje cell loss significantly affects compensatory breathing patterns following mild CO2 exposure, possibly by inhibiting recovery from elevated CO2. These data implicate cerebellar Purkinje cells in the ability to recover from hypercarbia, suggesting that neuropathologic changes or loss of these cells contribute to inadequate ventilatory recovery to increased environmental CO2. Multiple disorders, including sudden infant death syndrome (SIDS) and sudden unexpected death in epilepsy (SUDEP), appear to involve both cardiorespiratory failure and loss or injury to cerebellar Purkinje cells; the findings support the concept that such neuropathology may precede and exert a prominent role in these fatal events